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The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday for most of the day. It is worth noting that the only events that could have affected trader sentiment were published in the US. These include reports on industrial production, third-quarter GDP, and durable goods orders. GDP grew by 4.3%, which significantly exceeded forecasts, but industrial production fell by 0.1%, and durable goods orders declined by 2.2%. Thus, we continue to witness a paradox: the US economy is growing, yet most other macroeconomic indicators are declining. This situation is perhaps only possible under Donald Trump. The market clearly understands that current GDP growth is not a reliable indicator, and it is certainly not a reason to buy the US dollar. Therefore, the dollar's growth following the data release lasted only a couple of hours, and then the initiative was once again taken by the British pound. A new ascending trend line formed on the hourly timeframe, and we believe that the upward trend has resumed in the medium term.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its flat phase and is resuming its upward move. We fully support this scenario, as we have repeatedly stated. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we only expect upward movement. Overall, we anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend in 2025, which may push the pair to the 1.4000 mark within the next couple of months.
On Wednesday, novice traders may look to open new long positions if the price breaks above the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant if there is a bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, with a target around 1.3437-1.3446.
Key Levels to Monitor on the 5-Minute Chart: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the US, but the market is ready to trade even ahead of Christmas and the New Year. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move prices than in regular conditions.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.