EUR/USD rose above the 1.1630 level on Thursday before consolidating back below it, while overall trading remains range-bound. Consolidation below the 1.1630 level suggests the possibility of a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1578. However, I would not recommend placing too much emphasis on the 1.1630 level at this stage. The market remains in a sideways range, with bullish and bearish attempts alternating regularly, while neither side holds a clear advantage.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish and remains so for now. However, bulls will only be able to extend their advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement, stop violating the ceasefire terms, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Without these developments, further gains in the euro are likely to be extremely difficult.

There were very few economic events on Thursday. The Eurozone released weak retail sales data, while the United States published weak initial jobless claims figures. Despite this, the euro advanced confidently during the first half of the day, while the U.S. dollar strengthened during the second half. Therefore, I remain convinced that economic data continues to have little influence on trader sentiment. The situation may change today, as traders will receive updated information on the state of the U.S. labor market and unemployment. However, in my view, even such important data is unlikely to trigger strong market movements. Traders remain hostage to geopolitical developments, which have recently been disappointing not because of a lack of news, events, or changes in the geopolitical agenda, but because of contradictory reports, conflicting developments, and a lack of concrete facts. Almost every day, the media produces a large volume of information that has little impact on the actual resolution of the conflict in the Middle East.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade within a horizontal range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% level at 1.1667. Market participants remain cautious about opening new positions and drawing conclusions, and I currently recommend focusing more on the hourly chart, as price movements have been relatively weak in recent weeks. The rebound from the 1.1667 level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict involving Iran, while during the last nine weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to view the euro favorably. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—none of which have been in short supply in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved. As a result, in the near term, the euro and the U.S. dollar are likely to be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Q1 GDP Growth Rate (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC).
• United States – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC).

The June 5 economic calendar contains three events, with the U.S. releases standing out as the most significant. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment could be substantial during the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has been reached. New short positions may be considered after a rebound from the 1.1630 level from below. Long positions may be opened after a rebound from the 1.1578 level, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1682.

Fibonacci grids are constructed using 1.1409–1.1850 on the hourly chart and 1.2081–1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.