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14.09.2026 08:47 AMThe price test at 1.1603 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the move.
US inflation presented the market with a puzzle rather than a clear answer. Headline CPI accelerated to 0.4% month-on-month, but the annual reading held at 3.4%, and core inflation even slowed to 2.4% year-on-year. At first glance, this is an argument for the doves, but the monthly core rate accelerated to 0.3%, which annualizes to about 3.7% — and that will be pointed to by hawks. Essentially, the report gave each Federal Reserve camp exactly what it wanted to see. For the single currency, I consider this outcome mildly positive. The slowdown in core annual inflation eases some pressure, and the dollar, weakened by Japanese interventions, has no clear reason to reverse, so EUR/USD still has room for stability.
However, the eurozone's empty economic calendar again leaves the euro without support, and all attention shifts to the dollar ahead of the Fed meeting starting tomorrow. The dollar is strong now because of a steady stream of robust US data. August inflation, although ambiguous, confirmed that price pressure has not gone away. For me, this is the exact picture in which the market prices in a hawkish Fed stance and the US currency gains an advantage. In such conditions, the single currency moves into a defensive mode. Without its own drivers and with a stronger dollar pushing it down, EUR/USD will likely stay under pressure until the end of the first half of the day. I believe participants will prefer caution ahead of the Fed meeting, and any attempts by the euro to rise will look fragile.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mostly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: today you can buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1579 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1611. At 1.1611, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Expect euro growth only as part of a correction. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if it tests 1.1562 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect moves to the opposite levels 1.1579 and 1.1611.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1562 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1520, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of weak data. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1579 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1562 and 1.1520.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
