Oil prices jumped again after the US carried out strikes in southern Iran and talks with Tehran sent a slew of mixed signals. This matters for the market because such news affects supply and prices.

On Tuesday, Brent is trading higher. By 10:45 London time, July Brent futures were up 3.4% at $99.39 a barrel. July WTI was trading at $92.85, about 3.9% below Friday's close (there was no WTI trading on Monday due to Memorial Day in the US).

US forces said they "struck today in self-defense in southern Iran." Reported targets included launchers and vessels that allegedly attempted to lay mines. US Central Command said the action was taken "to protect our forces from threats by Iranian forces."

The IRGC warned it would retaliate for violations of the ceasefire, citing the detection and interception of US drones and an F-35 fighter that allegedly intruded into their airspace.

At the same time, Iranian news agency Tasnim, citing a source, reported that talks with the US "went well overall," but signing a memorandum will depend on the unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets.

Adding to the confusion, Donald Trump tweeted, urging Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to join the "Abraham Accords." He also said talks with Iran are "going well" but warned the US could resume military action if the dialogue fails: "It will be either a great deal for everyone, or no deal at all."

On Friday, UBS warned the global oil market is showing signs of strain — stocks continue to fall due to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the bank, observed global inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April, and cumulative production losses by the end of May could exceed 1 billion barrels.

In short, news of the strikes and the lack of a coherent negotiation process have heated market volatility — oil ultimately jumped, and UBS warns that inventories and supplies are already being materially depleted.